I'm planning on doing a crowdfunding with a twist:

• If I do not reach the goal (to be determined) by the deadline (to be determined). I will refund everyone. I will also give a refund bonus of 20% your pledge as a thank you for supporting this project

• If I do reach that goal by the deadline. I keep all the money and use it to develop a platform that allows you to raise money in the same way (crowdfunding with a refund bonus) to fund your art projects, software projects, etc. — anything you are willing to give a way for free.

If I don't reach the goal then I stand to lose up to $165.80. Since I don't want that to happen, I'm asking manifold what should my goal be to maximize my chance of success.

I reserve the right to set the goal at any amount. I might take the information this market gives into account, or I might not.

More info:

• I will publish a website with a PayPal Button that must be used to send me money. The website will also have a progress bar showing how much has been donated so far. I list of all donors and a timer counting down to the deadline.

• I will advertise this on lesswrong (it will be approximately a 4500 word post).

• I might do some other marketing

Feel free to ask any clarifying questions in the comments.

Also join our Discord https://discord.gg/KGeCTx33g if you think this idea is interesting.